Auburn and Syracuse: Grand Success and Epic Mediocrity

For LSU, the Auburn game was a quintessential performance. A thoroughly dominant exhibition, especially thanks to epic running back play. And then, the Syracuse game, an exhibition in mediocrity at best. LSU looked lackluster, but won anyway thanks to epic running back play.

In some respects these games encapsulate a feature of Miles’ tenure at LSU. His teams have played quite well in high profile games and against quality opponents. The 2011 team showed this in spades, destroying Oregon, West Virginia, Florida, Auburn, Arkansas, and Georgia. All of those teams were ranked in the top 20 when LSU played them. But the combined score was LSU 256, opponents 96, and LSU won every one of those games by double digits.

But, this high level of play is evident in other seasons too. Cherry-pick almost any Miles Era year, and you’ll find an impressive performance. Sometimes it’s a blowout, like the 2007 victories against Virginia Tech and Ohio State. Other times, LSU keeps it close against or even beats a superior foe. This occurred last year, when an overmatched LSU team should have beaten Alabama and did beat Ole Miss. The theme is pretty consistent—when there is something to play for, Les’ teams can show up and can sometimes show up big.

The inverse of that is the Syracuse game. Or Troy State. Or Towson. Or UNC. Or Washington. Again, pick any year of the Miles Era, and you will probably find a game that LSU lost and should have won, or a game that LSU won, but should have won handily.

But, is it fair to question whether or not this is fair? Don’t all college football teams lay eggs? Especially at 12pm, and especially a 1,000 miles away? Even when LSU was coached by Saban, a man who programmed his players to always do their jobs, there were disappointing showings. The losses to UAB and Iowa, and the near loss to Oregon State evidence this. Pick any Saturday from any season, and you can find all sorts of confounding results from teams across the country. So in this respect, Miles is no different from any other coach, and LSU is no different from any other team.

And yet, Miles and LSU are different, if for no other reason than because they are our team and we notice this phenomenon in our own unique way. There is something that only we notice in how unimpressive and lackluster LSU can look. The incompetence at Syracuse is jarring, especially because a week earlierthe dominance was equally staggering. And we all witnessed both. Apexes and nadirs rarely occur so closely in time. And when they do, it is confusing for those we watch every moment.

The result on the fan is a kind of rollercoaster, an up and down between ebullience and despondence. One week, we look the part of a national champion. The next? A mid-level ACC team. It is maddening, because LSU fans constantly have to be reasonable and adjust their expectations, to prepare themselves for the wild ride while remaining level-headed. This is by its very nature difficult for fans to do, as participation in a sporting even encourages irrational thinking and action. We are rational in our work; leisure is a time to be a little more spontaneous, silly, and irreverent. This is the purpose of Mardi Gras and other similar Carnival related holidays.

So the Miles Era Tigers are a special kind of team, even if they are not. Their performance in Syracuse was something we all should have at least known was possible. Yet, it caught many off-guard because we are not rational about LSU football. We fail to consider past and present evidence, and over rely upon only the most recent evidence—the Auburn game. Thankfully, though, the Syracuse game is over.

Now, it’s on to Eastern Michigan, a team that is worthless ore compared to LSU’s gold. Surely LSU will learn its lesson. Surely LSU will be inspired by the home crowd. Surely LSU will win by dozens of points. Probably, but preparing for the worst wouldn’t be irrational.

Risk Aversion, Les Miles, and the “Run, run, pass” Offense

In 2008, Jarrett Lee threw seven pick sixes and LSU finished 3-5 in the SEC. The campaign also featured a 30 point loss to Florida, an 18 point loss to Ole Miss, a 14 point loss to Georgia, and a heartbreaking loss to Bama—which included an interception in overtime. Lee was not the only culprit that season, though. The defense allowed over 30 points four times, including 51 points scored by Florida and 52 points by Georgia—in Tiger Stadium no less. This was beginning of the dual-defensive coordinator era, that odious interregnum between Pelini and Chavis.

All of these wounds were tolerable, though. LSU had won the national title in 2007, destroying Ohio State. The team had a circuitous and largely fortuitous route to that title game, but a national title is a national title. And a significant drop off in ‘08 was understandable due to graduation and draft-defection. Matt Flynn, Jacob Hester, Glenn Dorsey, Early Doucet, and Craig Steltz were all gone. And the team’s new, highly touted QB, slated to replace Flynn? Ryan Perrilloux., who was kicked off the team in February before he could take a single snap as the LSU starting QB for the ‘08 season.

Allowances are made in college football. When the last season’s reward was so big, and a flight of talent takes place. It is okay to suck, at least for most programs. So in a way, the season was a regrettable epilogue to the ’07 title year. And yet, the repercussions of the ‘08 season are perhaps the inspiration for many LSU fans’ consternation—our anemic, run-obsessed offense.

The ‘08 season, and most notably all of those pick sixes, appears to have left a bold impression on Les Miles. Recently, on the LSU-MSU postgame, former LSU quarterback Alan Risher claimed that Miles must still have nightmares about those errant throws in ‘08. In part because of such memories, we had an offense that relies on our offensive line, our running game, and our defense. Matt Moscona, host of the popular radio show After Further Review, made similar statements last year, and others have doubtlessly noted this as well.

And there is evidence to support such a view. In Les’ inaugural LSU season, 2006, Jamarcus Russel was the QB. That LSU team averaged about 250 passing yards per game (PYPG), and at a 66% completion rate. That ‘07 title team? About 225 PYPG. The ‘08 team averaged about 200 PYPG. In two of those three seasons, LSU averaged more passing yards per game than rushing yards per game. After that ’08 season, LSU has averaged as follows (year is in parentheses): 181 (09), 156 (10), 153 (11), 200 (12), 251 (13), and 163 (14). The outliers, the ’12 and ’13 seasons, featured Zach Mettenberger and some exceptionally talented receivers.

But, generally speaking, since that ‘08 season, LSU has been reluctant to pass much. So is Miles really just spooked and won’t trust these young/bad QBs as some commentators have observed? Possibly. Psychology offers a useful framework for understanding what might be going on here, negativity bias. Essentially, negative events or things are more memorable. So, that bad tasting cupcake that made you throw up? Very memorable. Those 100s of good cupcakes? Not as memorable, even though there were more of them.

Negativity bias has been found in how fans remember their teams’ games—then painful losses stand out more, in how people remember their own failures/embarrassments—think about your own life, in how people remember tastes and smells—like the nasty cupcakes, and in many other ways. Negative events are just more easily recalled in memory and tend to leave a more profound effect on the person, at least for most people.

So, does Les still see those pick sixes and other passing-related failures? Those harsh events are almost certainly more memorable for him, as they are for many of us. They may flash into his mind during game planning, play-calling, and recruiting. Les’ loyalty towards Jefferson, even after Lee’s good 2011 season? Les continued 2-1 run-pass ratio? Les focus on defense, special teams, running game?

But assuming that some degree of negativity bias is at work in Les’ head and has contributed to some of his offensive game planning, what does that mean? Is it a good or bad thing?

First, individuals who are more influenced by the bad tend to be less creative. This is in part due a fear of risk, lest the bad things happen again. Risk is a crucial aspect of improvement. Trying new things provides individuals with feedback, new information about the team’s strengths and weaknesses. Only when we take a risk do we discover an unknown ability or learn that our strength is actually a paper tiger. An LSU example of this was the brilliant use of Jordan Jefferson at Alabama in 2011. A simple risk, run with the back-up QB, taught us a lot about Bama and our own team. It also provided a wrinkle that future opponents had to prepare for.

But, one could claim that this past risk, and there are others too, are the exceptions. Generally speaking, Les and LSU have repeatedly run the ball, and done so in a very predictable fashion. Other teams stack the box for this very reason, and this can result in diminishing returns. To deal with this problem, risk and innovation are needed. Without these things, LSU’s offense becomes static, predictable, and easily beatable.

And yet, LSU has won a lot of games playing this way. We won an SEC title in 2011, and almost a national title. We won 11 games in 2010 and 9 in 2009, both non-Mettenberger years. And perhaps this success is attributable to Les’ negativity bias, which has inspired our conservative play. Controlling the clock, not throwing interceptions, and winning games are all good things. And this is why negativity bias exists in the first place. You do something or are part of something that results in a horrible outcome, and so you instinctively learn to never do that something again.

Take for instance being in a car accident. Afterwards, you will probably be more careful, especially in risky situations. You might improve your driving, check lanes before turning, signal more regularly, and stop speeding. The bad situation, even though it was just one driving event, has taught you a valuable lesson—be careful, accidents can happen to you and it could be really bad.

The question is—Is Les Miles a better coach because of his bad memories? Sometimes perhaps yes, sometimes perhaps not. But this is the underlying psychological framework that could help illustrate LSU’s offensive philosophy.